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On this page we have collected data and information that is intended as a starting point for assessing how the municipality is affected by climate risk. Scroll down to see how greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, investments and business structure may affect the climate risk Narvik is exposed to.
Measures to reduce car traffic can affect the location of shopping malls. The transition to a circular economy and increased recycling can affect consumer behaviour.
3.1%
Warehousing and support activities for transportation
Extreme weather can lead to increased wear and tear, more serious damages, and more traffic disruptions. Measures to reduce emissions in the transport sector can be expected.
2.6%
Civil engineering
More extreme weather can affect construction activities e.g. through damages. Expectations for fossil-free construction sites and/or reporting of emissions during the construction phase may increase.
Tap a category to display graphs for that category
Greenhouse gas emissions in the municipality
354,025tonnes of CO2eq
Change in the previous year
-14.2%
Emissions per citizen
16.4tonnes of CO2eq
Data retrieved
The chart shows emissions within the municipality`s geographical area. It is based on the same principles and sectorial classifications as the national accounts, which again are based on the IPCC standard."
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The chart shows emissions within the municipality`s geographical area. It is based on the same principles and sectorial classifications as the national accounts, which again are based on the IPCC standard.
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data-last-update="Data retrieved 8/21/2025">
Emissions of greenhouse gases drive climate change. Without reducing emissions, we will not be able to slow down climate change and thus minimize the physical climate risk that results from climate change.
The transition to a low-emission society requires a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, also in Norway. We will likely experience more taxes, carbon pricing and bans on high-emitting technologies. This represent transitional risk for the municipalities. New regulations can affect the municipality's own emissions and thus impose costs on the municipality. Carbon-intensive businesses that are important to the municipality may experience that demand, revenues and company value are affected. You can read more about how the local business community can be exposed to climate risk under the tab «business».
The extent to which a municipality controls the emissions in its area varies. For example, it will be easier to influence emissions from industry and own activities (through instruments such as permits and tenders) than emissions from large thoroughfares such as the E6. This is also reflected in the risk: Large emission sources over which the municipality har little influence usually do not represent great climate risk for the municipality.
Industrial emissions in Narvik
Some firms are required to report indicators to the Norwegian Environment Agency, because the firm is associated with large emissions and/or a large environmental risk. Reported indicators include annual emissions, production volume, consumption of energy, and amounts of waste and hazardous waste produced.
The table shows emissions from businesses obliged to report in Narvik for the year of 2022.
The emissions are included in the municipality's overall emission accounts.
Note that only emissions from activities defined as industry are shown in the table. Emissions from offshore operations, sewage treatment plants and landfills are therefore not shown here.
Data retrieved
Large emissions from land-based industry are considered to be a relevant proxy for transition risk. This is because it's likely that high-emitting businesses will be required to reduce their emissions in the future, and that some will face a decrease in demand for their products.
If these businesses also employ a large proportion of the local workforce, the risk is amplified as the local community may experience the loss of many jobs at the same time (a "cornerstone effect"). This can have dramatic effects on budgets as tax revenue is reduced.
The greenhouse gas accounts include emissions from three different greenhouse gases. To compare the global warming potential (GWP) of these, tonnes of CO2 equivalents is used as the common unit of measurement. Carbon dioxide (CO2) has GWP = 1, nitrous oxide (N2O) has GWP = 298 and methane (CH4) has GWP = 25. The factors are taken from the IPCC's fourth main report, and are the same as used in the national emission accounts and in international reporting. Source: the methodology note accompying the Norwegian Environment Agency's municipality distributed emission statistics (in Norwegian).
Sea level rise and storm surge
For coastal municipalities, sea level rise can be a source of climate risk. The overview shows the estimated sea level rise in the year 2090 as well as the extent of buildings, roads and area that may be flooded at medium tides in 2090 given these levels.
Estimated sea level rise per 2090
Sea level rise in 2090
56cm
Flooded areas at medium tides in 2090
Buildings
113pcs
Roads
1.9km
Area
2.1km2
Storm surge today and in 2090
Flooded areas at 200-year storm surge now
Buildings
808pcs
Roads
6.1km
Area
5.3km2
Flooded areas at 200-year storm surge in 2090
Buildings
1,043pcs
Roads
9.5km
Area
6.6km2
For future sea level rise, the upper bounds of scenario RCP 8.5 is applied. This is a scenario developed in the context of the IPCCs fifth assessment report, and represents a scenario with high emissions, without effective policies to reduce emissions. This is the scenario used by the Norwegian Mapping Authority and recommended for planning by the Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB).
Data retrieved
For coastal municipalities, sea level rise can be a source of climate risk.
Roads, buildings and infrastructure can be flooded, especially during high tides or storm surges. This can lead to a reduction in the value of privately and municipality owned buldings, as well as an increase in the cost of carrying out maintenance. Insurance premiums in vulnerable areas may also increase. Liability risk can manifest in recourse claims against a municipality that against better knowledge allows development in areas that are vulnerable to sea level rise.
Predictions for future climate in Narvik
Increased probability
Heavy rainfall
Heavy rainfall events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency. This will lead to more stormwater runoff.
Rainfall floods (pluvial floods)
More frequent floods, and larger flood magnitudes are expected. In particular small rivers and brooks will be exposed.
Earth slides, floodslides and slushflows
Increased risk due to increases in heavy rainfall
Storm surges
As a consequence of sea level rise, the levels of storm surges are expected to increase
Possible increased probability
Droughts
Higher temperatures and increased evaporation increases the risk of summer droughts.
Ice-run
A shorter frost season, more frequent ice-runs in winter and ice-runs at higher elevations than today
Snow avalanches
Snow avalanches and slushflows are expected to become more frequent, however, towards the end of this century, the probability of dry snow avalanches will decrease where the snow season gets shorter and the snow amounts decrease
Uncertain
Quick-clay slides
Increased erosion as a consequence of more flooding may trigger more quick-clay slides.
Strong wind
Possibly no change
Rockfall
More frequent heavy rainfall may increase the frequency of rockfall, however, mainly for small events.
Rockslide
A substantial increase in the risk of rockslides is not expected due to climate change.
No change or less probability
Snowmelt floods (nival floods)
The onset of snowmelt floods are expected to shift earlier in spring and decrease in magnitude towards the end of this century
This climate profile summarizes the concrete effects that climate change may have on Narvik towards year 2100. The profile is based on the IPCC scenario RCP 8.5 - a scenario characterised by high emissions and a lack of effective policies to reduce emissions. The climate profile has been prepared by the Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (NCCS).
The climate profiles indicate which climate changes can be expected locally towards the end of the century and can thus be used as an indicator of which sources of physical climate risk are most relevant locally. These can be good helpers in the municipality's planning. For example, an increased probability of heavy rainfall may be a good argument for prioritizing management systems for urban runoff, or an increased probability of avalanches may be a good reason for investing in avalanche protection.
Projects financed with KBN's green loans
KBN offers green loans with reduced interest rates to municipal sector projects with clear climate- and environmental ambitions. These loans are financed with green bonds.
KBN offers green loans with reduced interest rates to municipal sector projects with clear climate- and environmental ambitions. These loans are financed with green bonds.
Municipal investments are long-term; construction and infrastructure are built to last for several decades. This means that what we build today should withstand the transition into a zero-emission society, especially if we reach the 2050 goals. In the same period the climate will probably toughen and the requirements for e.g. energy efficiency is likely to be tightened. Requirements and expectations towards the transport sector will likely also change. If physical climate risk is not taken into account in planning stages, damage caused by e.g. floods can become a costly affair. Choosing the cheapest solutions today can imply risking having to make unforeseen investments to meet future requirements.
KBN provides green loans with discounted interest rates for climate- and environment-friendly investments that we believe are compatible with a 2050 society, and which can help reduce the municipality's climate risk.
We have listed the industries that employ the most people in the municipality and that we believe may be affected by climate risk. The questions in the table are intended as a starting point for dialogue with the local business community. We have tried to indicate the degree of severity at an overall level but recommend that you make a separate assessment based on the local context.
Risk with very high severity
Risk with high severity
Risk with medium severity
Physical risk
Risk
Consequences
None
Apart from those resulting from the location of production facilities, there are no obvious physical risk factors for this industry.
Transitional risk
Risk
Consequences
Risk with high severity
Measures to reduce car traffic
What do measures to reduce car traffic, e.g. relocating junctions or toll booths, mean for the location of shopping centres?
Risk with high severity
The transition to the circular economy
What does the transition to the circular economy and the increase in recycling mean for the retail sector?
Risk with very high severity
Risk with high severity
Risk with medium severity
Physical risk
Risk
Consequences
Risk with medium severity
Extreme weather (damage and adaptation)
What does an increase in extreme weather, particularly more precipitation, more intense precipitation, more floods, more surface runoff, changes to freeze-thaw cycles or more landslides, mean in terms of the wear and tear and scope of the damage sustained by transport infrastructure, and in terms of disruption to traffic?
Transitional risk
Risk
Consequences
Risk with very high severity
Carbon pricing
What would be the impact of an increase in the duties charged on fossil fuels or greenhouse gas emissions ?
Risk with very high severity
The transition to zero-emissions in the transport sector
What will be the impact of licensing bodies and customers increasingly demanding low-emission solutions? What does the transition to electric or hydrogen-powered motor vehicles mean for the operation of car parks or bus stations?
Risk with very high severity
Risk with high severity
Risk with medium severity
Physical risk
Risk
Consequences
Risk with high severity
Extreme weather (damage and adaptation)
What does an increase in extreme weather, particularly in extreme precipitation, storms, surface runoff and floods, mean for civil engineering, e.g. with regard to damage and drainage?
Transitional risk
Risk
Consequences
Risk with high severity
Transition to fossil-fuel-free civil engineering
What would be the impact of public sector tender competitions or private project owners stipulating that building sites must be fossil-fuel-free and/or that greenhouse gas emissions from construction phases must be reported?
Risk with very high severity
Risk with high severity
Risk with medium severity
Physical risk
Risk
Consequences
Risk with medium severity
Extreme weather (damage and adaptation)
What does an increase in extreme weather, particularly more precipitation, more intense precipitation, more floods and more surface runoff, changes to freeze-thaw cycles or more landslides, mean in terms of the wear and tear and scope of the damage sustained by transport infrastructure, and in terms of disruption to traffic?
Transitional risk
Risk
Consequences
Risk with very high severity
Transition to zero-emissions in the transport sector
What do toll stations, zero-emission zones and road user charges mean for the transportation of goods and persons using fossil-fuel-powered motor vehicles? What would be the impact of customers of transport services, e.g. road-based goods transportation, increasingly demanding solutions that generate lower emissions?
Risk with very high severity
Risk with high severity
Risk with medium severity
Physical risk
Risk
Consequences
Risk with medium severity
Extreme weather (damage and adaptation)
What does an increase in extreme weather, e.g. droughts, extreme precipitation, floods or higher sea levels, mean for manufacturing processes and manufacturing sites in the cement industry?
Transitional risk
Risk
Consequences
Risk with very high severity
Carbon pricing
What will an increase in the CO2 allowance price to EUR 55 per tonne by 2025 mean for the cement industry?
The sample is based on Statistics Norway's statistics on employment by place of residence (table 08536). You can learn more about how we have selected the industries in the methodology note.
Tax revenues from inhabitants make an important contribution to the municipality's budget. Therefore, the municipalities are dependent on the business community being affected as little as possible by climate change (physical climate risk) and at the same time succeeding in the transition to a low-emission society (transition risk), so that employment is upheld.
At this time, we do not have any data for [blockname]
Industry, oil and gas
-14.2
%
